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Gulf Keystone: Multiple M&A angles

Veteran stock picker and Proactive contributor Zak Mir (@zakstraderscafe) provides his insight on this fallen angel of the oil sector
oil refinery
GKP operates in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq

Although Kurdistan-focused oil and gas group Gulf Keystone Petroleum PLC (LON:GKP) shares are still way off their glory days of 2014 when they traded at many multiples of where they are now, the recovery over the past year has been meaningful.

Indeed, it may become more meaningful if major oil players start to run the rule over the company's assets, and decide to pick up this situation at bargain basement levels.

Names in the frame include DNO, which recently made a hostile takeover of Faroe Petroleum, as well as Gazprom or one of the state-owned Chinese oil companies such as CNOOC.

For those wondering how a Russian group could make a bid for a UK listed company in the current environment, Gulf Keystone is registered in Bermuda. In fact, DNO is in the frame on the basis that it owns a next door asset in Kurdistan.

Looking at the price action of Gulf Keystone, it can be seen that the stock is knocking on the door of its key 200-day moving average at 219p. A break of this level might suggest that the idea of a takeover here has some foundation, as the 200-day line is traditionally regarded as the barrier between bullish and bearish for a stock or market. 

The top of the July broadening triangle has an implied 320p technical target – with or without any M&A.

@zakstraderscafe 

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