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UBS is a fan of Greggs, but recent share surge makes valuation “challenging”

The value of Greggs shares has jumped by more than three-quarters since last summer, and UBS reckons they are now where they should be
greggs sausage roll
UBS is ‘neutral’ on Greggs, for which it has a share price target of 1,600p

UBS is a big fan of Greggs plc (LON:GRG), but the Swiss bank just can’t force itself to eat any more of its shares after their recent surge in value.

Since July, the stock is up by almost 70%, no doubt boosted by the successful roll-out of Greggs’ new vegan sausage roll.

READ: UBS hikes estimates for Greggs

Analysts still the like the company which they note has shown “resilience” in the face of an “uncertain UK consumer backdrop”, but that rise means they see little value in it at the moment.

“We believe that the business has a strong medium-term outlook, with a sustainable and high-quality store roll-out, and opportunities to drive operational momentum with product and operational enhancements, brand perception improvement and digitalisation among other initiatives,” read a note to clients.

“However, with the stock up c.70% since its 12-month lows in July, and 15% above the previous peak, we believe that this sustained performance is now broadly priced in.”

Reflecting the “strong” medium-term outlook, UBS has upped its price target to 1,600p (from 1,500p).

But that isn’t much higher than the current price of 1,569p, which explains the rating downgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’.

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