Goldman Sachs said it does not expect demand for oil to return to is pre-coronavirus levels for two years as air travel will remain subdued by infection fears.
Demand is expected to fall by 8% this year, before rebounding 6% in 2021 and fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, the US investment bank said in a note and reported by Reuters.
“Oil demand has already started to recover with the initial pace of recovery surprising to the upside in economies like China and India," said the note.
June demand is estimated to be 12% below last year levels said the bank, but Goldman is expecting a rapid recovery in petrol usage, though this scenario might be upset by a second wave of infections, it said.
Jet fuel consumption is forecast to stay low as passengers will be nervous about air travel until an effective vaccine to the virus is discovered said the bank.
Crude oil prices have fallen from around US$64 per barrel (WTI) at the start of February to around US$40 currently, though they fell as low as US$14 in April.